Introduction to Foresight and Future Scanning Techniques

We are often tasked with helping clients anticipate and build a resilient model for the future. Paradoxically, clients often resist conducting future research or considering issues beyond their work domain.

Foresight research is a systematic process for identifying emerging signals, analysing trends, and developing potential scenarios to inform strategic decision-making. (Learn more in this document about the origins and history of the field of foresight and futurism.)

Through this process, organisations can gain a better understanding of possible futures and take proactive steps to shape outcomes that align with their goals and values.

 Future scanning with groups has several benefits:

• Diverse Perspectives: Engaging a group in future scanning activities brings a variety of viewpoints and expertise to the table, leading to more robust insights.
  

• Collaborative Innovation: Working as a group fosters collaboration, encouraging the co-creation of ideas and solutions that consider a broader context.
  

• Shared Ownership: Involving multiple stakeholders in future scanning helps build consensus and shared ownership of the outcomes, increasing buy-in and support for future-focused initiatives.

To begin the session, participants went into small breakouts to discuss the following question: 

What innovation or technology are you convinced will be available by 2029? 

Here are some of the answers:

• Wifi could be 50G. With better wifi, telemedicine can reach rural and underserved communities.

• Quantum computing. Possibly less tech and more science (permaculture for example).

• Fully autonomous vehicles will be a new norm. 

• There will be different versions of AI such as fake news and super assistance. 

• The lines between the real world and the artificial will continue to be blurred. 

This quote is often cited.:

“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”

— Attributed to many people… from the Nobel prize-winning Quantum Physicist Niels Bohr to legendary Baseball Player (and Philosopher) Yogi Berra

But what is future scanning vs. foresight vs. future studies?

 Foresight has 3 different definitions:

1. The power of foreseeing: “Through foresight, she could tell what the outcome would be.”

2. Provident care: “She had the foresight to invest her money wisely.“

3. An act of looking forward.

Within our work as designers and facilitators, the definition of future scanning that Peter is aiming for is “ the act of looking forward intentionally, with care.”

Chris Luebkeman, a trained futurist, inspired the topic of this Design Gym. He wrote a LinkedIn post about how he became a futurist. He is an engineer who was inspired by a bridge built in 1930 in Switzerland. 

He describes this bridge as beautiful and organic, with the appropriate balance of engineering and architecture. This is what futurists are trying to understand.

How can we design parameters that help build something to meet future needs with the appropriate level of intent, materials, costs, energy, etc.? 

Peter attended a Foresight and Future Professionals gathering at the University of Houston, which consists of participants from diverse backgrounds who work at Fortune 500 companies, small boutiques, etc. Attendees of this gathering share methodologies, models, languages, and practices that are continually evolving. 

These people live in organizations in which they have to stretch the companies i’ future, and they have the methodology to do so. 

Andy Hines is the head of the program, and Peter shared with the group what he has learned from him. 

It begins with a domain map. This is how he captures books, links, knowledge, and artifacts that do not fit into a certain category. His methodology captures those resources and watches them grow over time. 

A similar methodology is a future timeline. This is called STEEP ( Social, Tech, Environmental, Economical, and Policy). The middle of the circle is the domain topic and those outside of it are the gravitational pull of what is becoming extracted/influenced (these are subcategories). The policy is where these categories become enforceable and legally binding.

When mapping these out, there are three horizons. The first is a 1-2 year time span, then it is a 2-5 year timeline, whereas the third horizon is 5-10 years. 

Breakouts

Participants went into groups to practice this methodology. They were given topics/trends/weak signals to use and worked together to try to map out these topics on a horizon. Here is what the groups came back with: 

Group 1 had the topics of neurolearning, blockchains, and credentials. They put blockchain on horizon 2. It is a ledger,  it is good at tracking the history of things. For example, a researcher used blockchain to gather vaccination data for a certain population. 

1. How we did the work vs the work we did. We need to surround ourselves with people with different levels of expertise. Our personal biases have a lot to do with how we see the future. 

2. The challenge of qualitative vs quantitative research. 

3. We need to be clearer in our language about what the future means in terms of access for everyone. 

Group 2 had the gamification of learning and meta-learning. Meta-learning was put on the first horizon. The gamification of learning was placed on the second horizon. It is essential to find the right people and the right amount of people around the topic, this takes time. Diversity of thought and representation are essential. 

Group 3 had global collaborative learning, personalized learning platforms, and AI as teaching assistance. Global learning is already happening it is what we are doing right now with Miro and Mighty Networks. So this is in the first horizon.  The other two are in horizon 3, 5-10 years out.  We have extensive training to do. It will be a substantial collective learning experience for AI training. Much of this depends on the scale you are considering. 

So, what are the next steps? Learning a domain map. Professionals maintain this map of clients over an extended period. One category that was added to the Steep model is values. It is now STEEP+ v. Values are the processes occurring within us. What do we care about? Where do we spend our money? What motivates us? 

Introduction to Positioning: It’s Not Only Marketing

In marketing and branding, positioning is the strategic process of defining and establishing a distinct place for a brand in its target audience's mind within a competitive landscape. It involves crafting a unique identity and value proposition that sets a brand apart from its competitors.

Positioning is crucial for several reasons:

• Differentiation: In a crowded market, positioning helps a brand stand out by highlighting its unique features, values, and benefits. This differentiation is essential for attracting and retaining customers seeking something specific and valuable.

• Target Audience Alignment: Effective positioning ensures a brand's message resonates with its target audience. By understanding the audience's needs, desires, and preferences, a brand can tailor its positioning to create a strong connection with potential customers.

• Competitive Advantage: Positioning enables a brand to gain a competitive edge by offering something distinctive. This distinctiveness can be based on product features, quality, pricing, or any other factor that resonates with the target audience.

• Consistency: A well-defined positioning strategy provides a framework for consistent messaging across all brand touchpoints. Consistency helps in building trust and a cohesive brand image over time.

• Brand Perception: How a brand is perceived by its audience is crucial to its success. Positioning influences this perception, shaping how customers think and feel about a brand. Positive perceptions can lead to brand loyalty and advocacy.

• Communication: Positioning guides communication strategies. It helps craft clear, relevant, and compelling messages, ensuring the brand's story is effectively communicated to the target audience.

• Long-Term Success: Brands that establish a solid, favorable market position are more likely to achieve long-term success. A well-defined position helps a brand weather market fluctuations and changing trends by remaining rooted in its unique identity.

By practicing and implementing your peers' recommendations, you can improve your positioning, both inside and outside an organization.

These methods empower facilitators and collaboration professionals to have more effective conversations, especially in the lead generation and business development stages.

Positioning

Peter was introduced to this concept a year ago during a workshop he took through Chris Doe, the Future, for owners of creative firms. Peter applied what he learned from this workshop at the Design Gym, sharing his insights, collaborating with participants, and deepening his own expertise.

Positioning can be a valuable tool for explaining to others what you do, how you can be of service, and how to grow your impact and business presence. 

Your attitude plays a crucial role in positioning. But, what is the meaning of the word attitude? For Peter, attitude always meant a mindset. For example, his attitude when showing up in the world: Is it positive or negative? Optimistic or pessimistic? etc. 

Peter has multiple family members who are studying to be pilots. In the aviation field, the word attitude has a different meaning. Attitude is defined as the angle and position, especially in approach, knowing where you are, what your pitch is, and what your speed is. 

In this line of work, what is the angle of approaching a problem? 

Peter then opened the discussion to the group: what is your position, and how do you describe it? Where are you headed? That is why we are here today to learn more about that. 

What You Do

This model was put together around the verbs that we use when discussing what we do. 

What is the simplest verb that you use in your life that describes what you do? For example, Peter creates; he is a maker. Finding a simple verb can be helpful to simplify and clarify, because often we get lost in the language and complex terms of art.

Participants then worked on a Miro board to map the diversity by choosing the circle with the color of the verb that relates to them. Here are the results of the group. This exemplifies the diversity of teams. Not everyone is a designer, a creator, or a leader; it takes a team. 

How do we position ourselves so that we can create assets and have conversations strategically to connect with people who need our help? 

Mistakes

These are the seven common errors that we make when trying to position ourselves:

1. Democratize: This is good for team cohesion to ensure that everybody feels a part. But this can result in too much from too many people that it does not result in an effective positioning statement. 

2. Drawing too large of a circle: This means thinking about how we want to communicate in the future by including everything we have done in the past. Sometimes, we include too many things from the past, which results in us drawing the circle too large. 

3. Selection bias: Changing the positioning to imagine what the client/audience wants to hear. 

4. Collapse strategy with implementation: Are you helping people with their thinking or with the execution? It is helpful to know where your emphasis is as opposed to collapsing the two together. 

5. Overvalue Variety: Looking ahead to the future and accepting projects without intention rather than staying busy. 

6. Confusion: Did you confuse the person that you are talking to?

7. Was your positioning not meaningful? The client is a good match, but we missed an opportunity to work with them by explaining the position in a non-meaningful way.

What is a Problem Tree Diagram and How Is It Useful?

A problem tree diagram is similar to mind mapping: a non-linear network of ideas. It is a more structured technique that focuses on addressing a specific problem and its root causes and consequences. 

It is a tool that aids in targeting a component of the system and prompts the question: “What led to this problem, and what are the consequences of not addressing it?”  

This is a great tool to use before jumping into solutions. 

Models are heavily used within the world of MG Taylor. One saying is that “No model is perfect, but some models are useful.” 

Another axiom is that "the only valid test of a model is what it enables you to do. It is not about the model itself. They are just tools and are related to mapping." 

The map or the model is not the actual territory but helps guide decisions around the problem. 

Wicked problems 

A wicked problem is “a problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognize. It refers to an idea or problem that cannot be fixed, where there is no single solution to the problem; and wicked denotes resistance to resolution rather than evil.” - Wikipedia.

When working with problem trees, the goal is not to solve the massive overarching problem, better known as the wicked problem. The goal is to work together to determine a problem's causes and effects. A problem tree diagram serves as a foundation for developing effective solutions. 

When working with complex systems, it is hard to zone in and fix one thing in hopes of curing the whole system. Problem trees are diagnostic tools. They zoom in and reduce friction for the user/patient, or for specific process steps. 

An example of this can be seen in the United States water usage. The Colorado River supplies water to seven different states in two countries. Due to climate change, the river has become increasingly arid over the years. Using this information, we can examine how different systems affect water use in a river. 

These are all examples of wicked problems for which no single solution will suffice. Focusing on these types of issues can cause a continuous cycle. Instead, look at smaller-scale difficulties and use the problem tree as a diagnostic tool.

Important Questions

Below is a collection of essential questions that may be useful when working with groups or a small team to create a model that articulates the problem.

Two crucial questions to consider are:

1. Does this represent reality?

2. Are these all of the critical questions?

Building problem trees

At the end of the session, the participants split into groups to address the planting of problem trees. The groups were instructed to propose a problem and discuss the root causes and consequences if the problem goes unsolved. 

Following the activity, the participants returned to the group to discuss their experience working with the problem trees and to offer any suggestions. Here are some of their thoughts: 

• It took considerable effort to reach a group decision on a topic. They needed more time to have a conversation. 

• Each person provided a rationale for considering the topic important. Each person had different experiences. 

• It is easy to view consequences as negative, but they can also be positive. Shifting to this mindset moved the energy of the conversation. 

• People from around the world can connect through shared concerns when discussing problems. 

• The problem tree is simple, accessible, and gives structure to what can be a complicated conversation.

• It helps you focus on a single aspect of the problem at a time. 

• This model is so open. It wasn't restrictive of the scope that they wanted to explore. 

• Participants suggested renaming it from a problem tree. The word “problem” can carry certain connotations.